*Unruhen im Iran wegen Jahrestag?

Folgenden Text habe ich gerade per eMail erhalten, von jemandem, der über die Geschehnisse vor Ort gut informiert ist.

Ob die vorausgesagten Ereignisse tatsächlich stattfinden werden ist schwer abzuschätzen. Später mehr dazu.

Hier der Text:

Hello Everyone
The situation in Iran continues to be a paradox of stalemate and deadlock.
None of the sides seem to be backing down. The Khamenei backed coup
government of Ahmadinejad seem to be pressing on with Ahmadinejad going into
TV again and announcing his plans for the second term and impending changes
in his „Cabinet“. And Ahmadinejad’s allies and supporters are as vocal as
ever; demanding the arrest and trial of Mussavi and their supporters and
protesters without mercy.

On the other, the opposition camp has been too quiet. We know that many of
Reformist leaders and independent activists are behind bars. Therefore, two
probable explanation exist: either Musavi & co are preparing their next move
and hope to catch the government of-guard or the pressure is too high for
them and they may remain inactive for some time.

However, today -Thursday- is important and may cause some changes.As you
probably know it is the 10th anniversary of *“18 Tir“*. In 1999 a clash
between Hizbullah Ruffians and Tehran’s University Students and later the
attack of plain clothes to student dormitory, escalated into a full week
crisis. Thereafter 18 Tir became a symbolic day for Students movement.
*Significant
number of students are determined to take some action, that is
definite.*They have also tried to turn this into something big and the
are alot of
rumors and announcements spreading on the internet. My contact with Iran has
been an all time low, the text massaging is still down and calling Iran is a
bit of a challenge.

I believe that tomorrow, at the very least, we will see some scattered
demonstrations mostly around universities. I doubt that this could turn huge
but who knows? Things in Iran are never predictable and we may be stunned
tomorrow. Even if wide range of people do not join the protests,* things
might get ugly*. I am pretty sure that the students of cities other than
Tehran want to get involved as well. It would be also logical to think that
the police with their *bassiji* allies and hooligan mercenaries have their
own plans. *And we have to assume the worst when these animals get involved*
.

So Today Thursday is a worrisome day, Let us hope it wont get ugly
All the best